TRENTON, N.J. – A new Emerson College polling partnership with PIX11 and The Hill shows New Jersey’s governor’s race locked in a 43%–43% dead heat between Democrat Rep. Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli, with 11% undecided.
Voters under 40 back Sherrill 58%–24%, while those over 50 favor Ciattarelli 52%–36%.
Women lean Sherrill by 10 points and are more undecided than men, while men back Ciattarelli by 12 points.
Independents are pivotal, giving Ciattarelli a 25-point edge and comprising a large share of the undecided bloc.
Support by age tightens among voters in their 40s, where Sherrill leads 47%–40%.
Turnout dynamics are uncertain in the off-year contest, with no clear advantage for either party.
State issues dominate the agenda, led by the economy at 51%, followed by threats to democracy at 13% and housing affordability at 11%, placing pocketbook concerns at 62% when economy and housing are combined.
Gov. Phil Murphy’s job rating stands at 41% approve to 51% disapprove, a 10-point net negative that could weigh on the Democratic ticket even as Donald Trump remains 10 points underwater statewide.
On the next governor’s posture toward the Trump administration, voters split 49% for working with it and 51% for standing up to it, while independents favor cooperation 57%–43%.
The poll was conducted before reports resurfaced about a 1994 Naval Academy cheating investigation involving Sherrill’s class; the survey did not test the matter and its effect is unmeasured.
Emerson’s Matt Taglia said the undecided pool skews less educated, includes more women than men, and features many independents, leaving late movement in play across both coalitions.
Both campaigns are being pushed toward concrete proposals on taxes, energy, and home costs as New Jersey’s regional economics from North to South remain central to voter choice.
In a state used to split tickets, Jersey voters just set up a fourth-quarter deadlock.
